It’s a few days before election day. So what exactly is at stake?
When it comes to Congress, things seem pretty clear. If you believe Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, and generally it’s a good idea to listen to him, Republicans have a large, but not absolute, chance of taking over the House of Representatives next Tuesday. The Democrats have about a one-in-six chance of retaining control, but the consensus is a Republican gain of 50-60 seats.
If that happens, then you can pretty much count on nothing of substance happening nationally for the next two years. Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell have explicitly said their goal is to destroy Obama, no matter what. I expect a government shutdown as early as next spring. There will be nothing done about a national industrial policy, security policy, environmental policy, infrastructure policy, jobs policy, transportation policy, or deficit reduction policy. Republicans will try to extend the Bush tax cuts permanently, but will not cut spending to pay for it. In short, it will be a disaster. Paul Krugman nails it.
At the state level, it’s also a pretty simple question: what taxes do you want to see go up? If you think you aren’t paying enough property taxes already, vote for Tom Emmer. If you are dying to see the sales tax expanded, vote for Tom Horner. If, however, you think there is something wrong with this, if you think that perhaps the top decile should pay as much in taxes as the middle class, then vote for Dayton. No matter what, taxes are going to go up. We can’t solve a $6 billion deficit without increasing taxes.
In addition to this stark reality, Tom Emmer desires a very different Minnesota from what I am used to. One thing that strikes me is that whenever he talks about core city services, he says “police and fire”, and that’s it. Notably missing, at least to me: things like libraries, parks, recreation, and those other attributes that build a community. I visited my city library and parks all the time when I grew up and still do today. To me and a lot of other Minnesotans, these things are essential to quality of life as police and fire. But not to Tom Emmer. Emmer’s budget will also result in severe cuts to higher education and health care, two more things I care a lot about.
I understand the frustration that people are feeling right now. I’m frustrated too. I’m mad that Wall Street is more concerned with wrenching every last dollar it can from the economy, to the point of unlawfully kicking people out of their homes. I’m mad that the economy is slowing down now that the effects of the stimulus are wearing off. But I’m not going to vote for those people who want to completely turn their backs on Wall Street and let them do whatever they want. I’m not going to vote for people who pretend to want balanced budgets and lower taxes but never want to cut spending.
Our country faces some serious issues. But only one party is willing to sit down and talk about serious answers. The other one would rather talk about socialism and whether Obama is secretly a Muslim Kenyan anti-colonialist. The choice is obvious.